Meny Lukk

Aurora Energy Research March 30th 2024

Annik Carl, Research Associate at Aurora Energy Research, commented:

“If markets were to shift to a system of hourly and local GOs (Guarantees of Origin), revenues for Renewable Energy Systems operators could increase. When modelling Spain in 2030, we found a potential increase of GO revenues across technologies of at least 33% compared to the current annual system.”

In 2030, the Spanish market hourly GO prices are estimated to be 2.5 times as volatile as Day Ahead market prices in the same period, highlighting the risk to off-takers of committing to match 100% of their load profile to green generation on an hourly basis without a proper procurement strategy in place.

The benefits of high hourly GO prices in Spain would accrue to all types of renewables assets but particularly to hydroelectric assets, Aurora assesses, as they can more closely match the average electricity demand profile. As neither wind nor solar assets can flexibly adjust their production patterns, this highlights the role storage technologies could play in a world demanding 24/7 certification of green power consumption to reduce volatility.